Welcome to The Campaign Moment, your guide to the biggest developments in a 2024 election that\u2019s increasingly all about vibes \u2014 and vetting the VP picks.<\/p>\n
(Make sure you are subscribed to this newsletter here. You can also hear my analysis weekly on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.)<\/p>\n
It\u2019s getting to be crunchtime for Vice President Harris\u2019s choice of a running mate.<\/p>\n
The pick is due by Aug. 7, when the Democratic Party aims to formally nominate its ticket, solidifying Harris\u2019s elevation to the top slot after President Biden\u2019s exit from the contest. But we just got word that Harris is planning to tour the battlegrounds with the pick next week, which suggests it could come before the deadline.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, we\u2019re seeing the candidates wage what\u2019s basically a sprint of a campaign for the job \u2014 a remarkable scene in itself. They\u2019ve done events for her both virtually and on the campaign trail, they\u2019ve blanketed the airwaves with media appearances, and many of them seem to be making the case as much for themselves as for Harris.<\/p>\n
That sprint of a campaign \u2014 along with two candidates indicating Monday that they\u2019re not the pick \u2014 has crystallized the choice for Harris. So I thought it a good time to update my previous handicapping based on the latest.<\/p>\n
The momentum candidate: Walz<\/p>\n
Nobody\u2019s stock has risen over the past week as much as Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), who was previously thought to be something of a dark horse for the job. Walz has pushed himself into the conversation with a barrage of media appearances in which he\u2019s played up his rural roots and everyman appeal. Perhaps nobody has \u201ccampaigned\u201d for the job quite as much as he has.<\/p>\n
But subtly, perhaps the best argument for Walz is how he\u2019s seeded the biggest emerging Democratic talking point: that the GOP ticket is \u201cweird.\u201d Walz almost seemed to stumble upon it a week ago, but it quickly took hold.<\/p>\n
The other messenger candidate: Buttigieg<\/p>\n
To the extent this VP pick is about taking the fight to Republicans, Walz has some real competition for that mantle: from Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who has also been all over the airwaves.<\/p>\n
And while Walz is the hot new thing, Buttigieg has been doing this kind of thing for years \u2014 even going on Fox News to joust with its hosts. An appearance this past Sunday in which Buttigieg declined to accept the Fox host\u2019s premises has been shared far and wide on the left.<\/p>\n
The swing-state picks: Shapiro and Kelly<\/p>\n
While those two candidates might be the insurgents, two potential swing-state-focused picks thought to be leading contenders from the start still loom large \u2014 particularly, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) and Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.).<\/p>\n
Shapiro has been touring his home state in a potential preview of what he could provide the Harris campaign in a crucial state. And a Fox News poll this weekend reinforced the asset he could be. Shapiro\u2019s favorable rating in Pennsylvania was 61 percent \u2014 compared to just 32 percent unfavorable \u2014 and more than 3 in 10 Donald Trump supporters liked him. He even led Trump by 10 points in a hypothetical matchup as the party\u2019s nominee.<\/p>\n
Kelly has been quieter than these other candidates, and he maintains a lower profile. But an ABC News\/Ipsos poll this week showed him with the best net image rating of any of the potential picks.<\/p>\n
The anti-Vance: Beshear<\/p>\n
While other candidates have gone after JD Vance \u2014 Walz\u2019s \u201cweird\u201d comments have keyed on Vance \u2014 Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) has focused his pitch extensively on the GOP vice-presidential pick. He\u2019s called Vance a \u201cphony\u201d who has \u201cexploited\u201d and exaggerated his ties to eastern Kentucky and Appalachia. He\u2019s even said he would be eager to debate Vance. That\u2019s a pretty eager (and arguably presumptuous) statement.<\/p>\n
To the extent the name of the game is to create a contrast in running mates, Beshear has positioned himself as that.<\/p>\n
The others<\/p>\n
Two major candidates thought to be in the mix signaled Monday that we should look elsewhere. North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) said that he\u2019s pulling out of consideration, while Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) said she\u2019s \u201cnot a part of the vetting\u201d \u2014 after previously suggesting that she wouldn\u2019t take the job.<\/p>\n
Others who have been mentioned but haven\u2019t been as out front include Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo.<\/p>\n
The presidential race is suddenly blocking out the political sun. But federal and state primaries are kicking back into gear after a sleepy month of July. And we start with a big one Tuesday in Arizona.<\/p>\n
The Washington Post\u2019s Amy B Wang has your primer for that state\u2019s primaries. A couple big storylines to watch:<\/p>\n
It\u2019s long been assumed that former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake would win the GOP nomination for Senate, and that still appears likely \u2014 especially after Lake got some late help from Trump. But the most recent polling suggests that Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb has narrowed the gap somewhat, as some fret that Lake can\u2019t win a general election. (Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has regularly led in head-to-head matchups with Lake). If Lake doesn\u2019t win big, expect some more fretting.<\/span> 8 percent<\/p>\n That\u2019s the percentage of voters in a recent New York Times\/Siena College poll who were so-called \u201cdouble-haters\u201d \u2014 or who disliked both of the two major-party presidential candidates.<\/p>\n That number is way down from where it\u2019s been for much of the 2024 election cycle; it\u2019s generally hovered around 20 percent. The number has declined given how much better voters like Harris than President Biden, but it\u2019s also declined in part because of improved views of Trump. (Multiple recent high-quality polls show around 47 or 48 percent of voters like Trump.)<\/p>\n That renders this group less pivotal for the race ahead, at least for now. But we shouldn\u2019t rule out the possibility that both Harris and Trump are enjoying a bit of a temporary honeymoon \u2014 Harris after replacing Biden, and Trump after the assassination attempt and the recent Republican National Convention.<\/p>\n The good news for Harris: Recent polling suggests she does better with these double-haters than Biden was doing. A Fox News poll in Wisconsin showed her winning them by 25 points, after such voters were split in the poll back in April.<\/p>\n \u201cRising from Biden\u2019s shadow, Harris faces crucial test on foreign policy\u201d (Washington Post)<\/span> Welcome to The Campaign Moment, your guide to the biggest developments in a 2024 election…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":2211,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2210","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/tradetrovex.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2210","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/tradetrovex.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/tradetrovex.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tradetrovex.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2210"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/tradetrovex.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2210\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tradetrovex.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2211"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/tradetrovex.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2210"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tradetrovex.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2210"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tradetrovex.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2210"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nOne of the ugliest and most contentious Republican primaries in recent history culminates tonight in the 8th Congressional District. It features a pair of statewide candidates who lost alongside Lake in 2022 \u2014 former Senate nominee Blake Masters and former attorney general nominee Abe Hamadeh \u2014 along with state House Speaker Ben Toma and former congressman Trent Franks. Masters has not-subtly pointed to Hamadeh\u2019s heritage and lack of a family, while Hamadeh has played up his \u201ctestosterone\u201d and accused Masters of \u201chaving a mental breakdown.\u201d Trump previously endorsed Hamadeh but hedged his bets over the weekend by also endorsing Masters (something he\u2019s done before, by endorsing \u201cEric\u201d in a 2022 Senate primary featuring more than one Eric.)<\/span><\/p>\nA momentous number<\/h3>\n
Take a moment to read:<\/h3>\n
\n\u201c\u2018White Dudes for Harris\u2019 \u2014 including The Dude himself \u2014 raise over $4M\u201d (Washington Post)<\/span>
\n\u201cVance tells donors Harris change was a \u2018sucker punch,\u2019 at odds with campaign\u201d (Washington Post)<\/span>
\n\u201cTrump, with a history of sexist attacks, again faces a female opponent\u201d (Washington Post)<\/span>
\n\u201cKamala Harris\u2019s image bump, by the numbers\u201d (Washington Post)<\/span>
\n\u201cWith Dueling Ads, Harris and Trump Both Try to Define Her as a Candidate\u201d (New York Times)<\/span><\/p>\n