Goldman Sachs makes bold call on Aevex stock price

Goldman Sachs has a new call on Aevex, and the firm sees the recently public defense-technology company as a way for investors to get exposure to one of the military’s fastest-growing priorities.

In a Goldman Sachs note given to TheStreet, analyst Noah Poponak initiated coverage of Aevex (AVEX) with a Buy rating and a $34 12-month price target, suggesting 39.3% upside from the $24.41 price cited in the report.

The firm said Aevex gives investors exposure to a defense-tech company selling into a growing end market, with strong margins and cash flow layered on top of early-stage growth.

Goldman Sachs sees more room for AVEX shares

Aevex designs, manufactures, and sells unmanned aerial systems to the U.S. military, intelligence agencies, and international allies. Goldman described the company as a relatively pure play on UAS at a time when militaries around the world are increasingly focused on unmanned systems.

The firm said UAS have become more common on modern battlefields because they can be lower-cost, easier to produce, and useful across a wide range of missions. Goldman also noted that Aevex’s drones have been used heavily in Ukraine, with more than 6,200 units delivered to date and roughly 3,000 additional units expected through the rest of 2026.

AVEX by the numbers

Goldman’s bullish case leans heavily on the company’s expected revenue growth and EBITDA expansion over the next few years. The firm’s forecast shows Aevex growing from a sub-$500 million revenue business in 2025 into a much larger defense-tech platform by 2028.

• Goldman’s price target: $34
• Current price in the note: $24.41
• Implied upside: 39.3%
• 2025 revenue: $432.9 million
• 2026 estimated revenue: $592.7 million
• 2027 estimated revenue: $683.8 million
• 2028 estimated revenue: $814.6 million
• 2026 estimated EBITDA: $87.9 million
• 2028 estimated EBITDA: $171.3 million
  Source: Goldman Sachs.

Those estimates are central to the firm’s view that Aevex can grow while improving profitability.

Goldman expects the company to have the highest organic revenue growth in the medium term among the defense-tech names in its coverage, while also generating strong profitability and free cash flow.

Aevex has a clear drone identity

Aevex’s Tactical Systems segment, which is largely tied to UAS sales, generated 74% of company revenue in 2025. Goldman expects that segment to move toward roughly 80% of revenue going forward, which gives the company a cleaner link to drone proliferation than many broader defense contractors. 

The company’s product portfolio is concentrated in Group 2 and Group 3 kinetic strike UAS, although Goldman said Aevex offers platforms across Group 1 through Group 4/5. Goldman also highlighted the company’s CompassX autonomy and navigation package, which supports many of its UAS platforms and gives Aevex flexibility to modify targeting, navigation, data packages, and other components depending on customer needs. 

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Goldman also pointed to production capacity as part of the upside case. Aevex has a roughly 94,000-square-foot facility in Tampa, Florida, capable of producing about 1,000 unmanned systems per month, while the highest rate reached so far has been about 350 per month using only one shift and less than the full factory.

Ukraine is the near-term risk

The biggest question in Goldman’s report is how Aevex moves beyond its Ukraine-linked revenue base. Goldman estimates Ukraine represented roughly 60% of Aevex’s 2025 revenue and could represent about 70% of 2026 revenue, with the company assuming those revenues end after 2026. 

Goldman sees domestic programs as the bridge. The firm highlighted several opportunities, including the U.S. Army Launched Effects program, the OSD One-Way Attack program, and the Long Range Precision Strike Program, with opportunity values estimated at roughly $450 million, $700 million, and $200 million, respectively. 

That transition is important for the AVEX stock price because the company’s current growth story depends on replacing Ukraine-related work with new domestic awards. Goldman said several large new program opportunities exist today, and its modeled 2027 revenue is mostly tied to ramping domestic UAS programs.

Valuation leaves room for upside

Goldman valued Aevex at 5.4 times 2027 estimated EV/sales, which supports its $34 target. The firm said Aevex trades at roughly 3.8 times 2027 EV/sales, broadly in line with defense-tech peers, even though Goldman sees the potential for faster growth and better profitability than many companies in that group. 

That leaves Goldman with a relatively clear thesis. If Aevex converts domestic drone demand into contracts while maintaining its margin profile, the stock could deserve a premium valuation. If Ukraine revenue rolls off faster than domestic programs ramp, the path becomes harder for a company whose public-market story is still being formed.

Related: The next defense tech boom is already here